AAON Stock Analysis — AAON, Inc.
Sector: Industrials
AI Verdict
You're paying up at 30.4x forward earnings, but if AAON's high-touch HVAC model really delivers 120.8% EPS growth, that's cheap for the growth on offer.
Competitive Moat
AAON designs and manufactures highly customizable HVAC systems, focusing on energy efficiency and modular solutions for commercial buildings. Their defensibility comes from deep integration with customer specifications and a reputation for reliability in mission-critical environments, creating high switching costs for institutional buyers.
Summary
AAON is drawing attention for its forecasted 120.8% jump in earnings while trading at 30.4x forward earnings.
Where It Stands
AAON trades at 30.4x next year's earnings, well above the industrials median of 20x, but analysts expect a massive 120.8% EPS increase after 53.5% revenue growth last year.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 67.2x
- Forward P/E: 30.4x
- PEG Ratio: 0.56
- Earnings Growth: +1.2%
- Revenue Growth: +0.5%
- Dividend Yield: 0.00%
- 52-Week High: $150.46
- 52-Week Low: $73.19
Analyst Consensus
12 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell (14 analysts)
Bull Case
The forward P/E of 30.4x looks cheap for the 120.8% earnings growth expected, especially with a trailing PEG of 0.56 signaling the growth more than justifies the price.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E compresses to the sector median of 20x, the stock would lose over a third of its valuation even if earnings hit forecasts.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for upcoming quarterly earnings — if AAON delivers on the triple-digit EPS growth, the high multiple could be sustained.