BURL Stock Analysis — Burlington Stores
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
Burlington trades at 27.6x next year's earnings, so you're paying up for double-digit growth that only makes sense if its sourcing moat keeps driving results above typical retailers.
Competitive Moat
Burlington operates an off-price retail model that relies on deep vendor relationships to source branded apparel at steep discounts, attracting value-conscious shoppers. Its scale and inventory turnover allow it to undercut traditional department stores, making it harder for smaller rivals to compete on price and selection.
Summary
Burlington's off-price buying model is driving 16.9% expected EPS growth, outpacing most brick-and-mortar peers.
Where It Stands
Shares trade at 27.6x forward earnings versus a consumer staples median of 20x, with analysts expecting 16.9% EPS growth and trailing revenue up 8.8%.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 32.3x
- Forward P/E: 27.6x
- PEG Ratio: 1.91
- Earnings Growth: +0.2%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- 52-Week High: $351.85
- 52-Week Low: $218.52
Analyst Consensus
19 Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell (24 analysts)
Bull Case
A 16.9% forward EPS growth rate supports paying 27.6x earnings, especially with the off-price model showing 8.8% revenue growth.
Bear Case
If the P/E multiple compresses from 27.6x to the sector median of 20x, the stock could lose roughly 28% even if earnings meet expectations.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for margin trends and inventory turnover in the next quarterly report—any slip could undermine the premium valuation.