CG Stock Analysis — The Carlyle Group
Sector: Financials
AI Verdict
Carlyle trades at a bargain price for the explosive growth analysts expect, but if those earnings don't show up, the discount won't last—this is a high-reward, high-risk setup anchored by their entrenched client base.
Competitive Moat
Carlyle Group is a global private equity and alternative asset manager with a moat built on deep institutional relationships and a long track record across multiple asset classes. Their scale and access to exclusive deal flow create barriers for smaller competitors.
Summary
Carlyle is drawing attention for its expected 93.5% EPS surge next year, which would slash its forward P/E to 9.8x.
Where It Stands
Shares trade at 9.8x forward earnings, a deep discount to the financials sector median of 14x, with analysts forecasting 93.5% EPS growth despite last year's -41.9% revenue drop.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 19.0x
- Forward P/E: 9.8x
- PEG Ratio: 0.20
- Earnings Growth: +0.9%
- Revenue Growth: -0.4%
- Dividend Yield: 0.04%
- 52-Week High: $69.85
- 52-Week Low: $39.60
Analyst Consensus
15 Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell (26 analysts)
Bull Case
A 93.5% forward EPS growth rate means you're paying just 9.8x next year's earnings for a near-doubling in profit, which is cheap for the growth on offer.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E rerates even halfway back to the sector median (from 9.8x to 14x) without the growth materializing, the stock could see a sharp correction.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates to confirm whether the massive EPS rebound is actually materializing.