CHDN Stock Analysis — Churchill Downs Incorporated
Sector: Consumer Services
AI Verdict
CHDN trades at 14x next year's earnings while analysts expect 15.5% EPS growth — that's cheap for the growth you're getting, and the Kentucky Derby moat makes those earnings more durable than most in consumer services.
Competitive Moat
Churchill Downs owns the Kentucky Derby and related racetrack properties, giving it an irreplaceable brand and regulatory moat in horse racing and gaming. Its unique event-driven cash flows and limited competition in licensed gaming markets protect its margins from new entrants.
Summary
CHDN is notable for its exclusive control of the Kentucky Derby, a one-of-a-kind recurring event in U.S. sports and gaming.
Where It Stands
CHDN returned 5.8% revenue growth last year and trades at 14.0x forward earnings, a discount to the consumer sector median of 20x, with a trailing PEG of 1.04 indicating the growth is nearly matched by the price.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 16.1x
- Forward P/E: 14.0x
- PEG Ratio: 1.04
- Earnings Growth: +0.2%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Dividend Yield: 0.00%
- 52-Week High: $118.46
- 52-Week Low: $80.24
Analyst Consensus
18 Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell (19 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts expecting 15.5% forward EPS growth and a 14.0x forward P/E, the stock is cheap for the earnings growth on offer.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to a lower multiple due to sector headwinds, a drop from 14.0x to 12x would cut the share price by about 14%.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for regulatory changes or Derby attendance trends, as a negative shift could undermine the moat and compress the multiple.