CMG Stock Analysis — Chipotle Mexican Grill
Sector: Restaurants
AI Verdict
Chipotle trades at 29.3x next year's earnings for just 4.7% expected EPS growth, so you're paying a premium the numbers don't yet support even with its operational moat.
Competitive Moat
Chipotle controls its supply chain tightly and has built a brand around customizable, fast-casual Mexican food with a focus on quality ingredients. Its digital ordering infrastructure and operational efficiency create switching costs and margin advantages that smaller chains struggle to match.
Summary
Chipotle is notable right now for trading at 29.3x forward earnings despite only 4.7% expected EPS growth, a mismatch for a stock once priced for much faster expansion.
Where It Stands
With a 1-year return of -39.71%, RSI at 53.5 (neutral), and a forward P/E of 29.3x versus the restaurant sector's typical mid-teens multiple, the stock is still expensive for its growth rate.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 53.5 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 30.6x
- Forward P/E: 29.3x
- PEG Ratio: 7.91
- Earnings Growth: +0.0%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $42.9B
- 1-Year Return: -39.71%
- 52-Week High: $57.04
- 52-Week Low: $28.04
Analyst Consensus
30 Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell (42 analysts)
Bull Case
Bulls point to a 5.7% trailing revenue growth and a 29.3x forward P/E as evidence that Chipotle's brand and operational edge could support a rebound if growth reaccelerates.
Bear Case
With only 4.7% forward EPS growth and a 29.3x forward P/E, any P/E compression toward a 20x industry norm would mean another 30% downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly same-store sales and digital order growth — a surprise acceleration is needed to justify the current multiple.