FAST Stock Analysis — Fastenal
Sector: Industrials
AI Verdict
Fastenal trades at 39x next year’s earnings while only expected to grow EPS 11.8%, so you’re paying a premium the numbers don’t yet support unless its embedded distribution moat delivers faster growth.
Competitive Moat
Fastenal dominates industrial supply distribution through a dense network of local branches and vending machines embedded at customer sites, locking in recurring business with high switching costs. Its proprietary inventory management tech and on-site solutions make it hard for rivals to displace once installed.
Summary
Fastenal’s on-site vending and inventory tech keep customers sticky, driving recurring sales.
Where It Stands
Shares are up 12.39% over the past year, trade at 39.1x earnings versus the industrial sector’s 20x median, and an RSI of 40.5 suggests the stock is cooling off after recent gains.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 40.5 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 39.1x
- PEG Ratio: 3.33
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $50.7B
- 1-Year Return: 12.39%
Analyst Consensus
5 Buy · 10 Hold · 8 Sell (23 analysts)
Bull Case
Analysts expect 11.8% EPS growth next year, and Fastenal’s 12.39% annual return shows steady demand for its high-touch distribution model.
Bear Case
At 39.1x earnings and a PEG of 3.33, the stock is expensive for its growth rate—if the P/E falls to the sector median of 20x, that’s a 49% downside risk.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch quarterly customer retention and new site installations—faster growth here would justify the premium multiple.