FCX Stock Analysis — Freeport-McMoRan
Sector: Metals & Mining
AI Verdict
FCX trades at 19.5x next year's earnings with nearly 80% EPS growth expected—cheap for the growth on offer, but the bet only pays off if its resource moat delivers on those ambitious forecasts.
Competitive Moat
Freeport-McMoRan controls some of the world’s largest copper and gold reserves, including the massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia, giving it scale and resource access that are nearly impossible for new entrants to replicate. Its long-term supply contracts and low-cost production base create a durable cost advantage in a cyclical industry.
Summary
A 79.5% jump in expected earnings and a forward P/E of 19.5x are drawing attention after a 67.29% one-year run.
Where It Stands
FCX is up 67.29% over the past year, trades at 19.5x next year's earnings (below the 20x industrials median), and has a neutral RSI of 62.2.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 62.2 — Near Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 35.0x
- Forward P/E: 19.5x
- PEG Ratio: 0.36
- Earnings Growth: +0.8%
- Revenue Growth: -0.3%
- Market Cap: $94.9B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: 67.29%
- 52-Week High: $70.97
- 52-Week Low: $35.15
Analyst Consensus
23 Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell (29 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth forecast at 79.5% and a forward P/E of 19.5x, you're paying a low price for explosive earnings momentum if copper demand holds up.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x but earnings disappoint, the 35.0x trailing P/E leaves room for a sharp pullback, especially with RSI near elevated territory at 62.2.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly production updates and copper price swings, as any miss on output or pricing could quickly deflate the high growth expectations.