FICO Stock Analysis — Fair Isaac Corporation
Sector: Software
AI Verdict
You're paying 29.1x next year's earnings for 36.2% expected EPS growth, which is cheap for a software name with FICO's moat, but the overbought RSI and recent -28.13% return make a near-term correction likely unless earnings momentum accelerates.
Competitive Moat
FICO owns the industry-standard credit scoring algorithms used by lenders and banks, creating a data and regulatory lock-in that is extremely hard for competitors to displace. Their proprietary models and deep integration with financial institutions make switching costly and risky for customers.
Summary
FICO's credit scoring software is a critical gatekeeper for U.S. consumer lending, and it's hardwired into the financial system.
Where It Stands
FICO trades at 29.1x next year's earnings versus the software sector median of 35x, with a 1-year return of -28.13% and an RSI of 72.4 signaling overbought territory despite recent underperformance.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 72.4 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 39.6x
- Forward P/E: 29.1x
- PEG Ratio: 1.12
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.2%
- Market Cap: $29.0B
- 1-Year Return: -28.13%
- 52-Week High: $1998.01
- 52-Week Low: $870.01
Analyst Consensus
20 Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell (29 analysts)
Bull Case
Forward EPS growth is projected at 36.2%, which is robust for a stock trading below the sector median forward P/E of 35x.
Bear Case
With an RSI of 72.4 and a trailing P/E of 39.6x, a pullback to the sector median multiple (35x) would mean a further 12% downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for regulatory changes or major lender contract renewals, as either could materially shift FICO's embedded position in the credit ecosystem.