FICO Stock Analysis — Fair Isaac Corporation
Sector: Software
AI Verdict
FICO trades at 29.7x next year's earnings while analysts expect 36.3% EPS growth—cheap for the growth on offer if its credit scoring moat holds, but the overbought RSI signals short-term pullback risk.
Competitive Moat
FICO owns the dominant credit scoring algorithm used by U.S. lenders, creating a data and network effect moat as banks and consumers both rely on its scores for lending decisions. Its proprietary models and long-standing integration into financial systems make displacement difficult, even as alternative scoring methods emerge.
Summary
FICO's 36.3% expected EPS growth is paired with a forward P/E of 29.7x, putting it in focus for growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors despite recent underperformance.
Where It Stands
FICO is up against a 79.0 RSI (overbought), a -17.37% 1-year return, and trades at 29.7x next year's earnings versus the software median of 35x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 79 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 40.5x
- Forward P/E: 29.7x
- PEG Ratio: 1.09
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.2%
- Market Cap: $29.6B
- 1-Year Return: -17.37%
- 52-Week High: $1998.01
- 52-Week Low: $870.01
Analyst Consensus
21 Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell (29 analysts)
Bull Case
You're paying 29.7x forward earnings for a company expected to grow EPS by 36.3% in the next year, which is a rare combination in software.
Bear Case
With an RSI of 79.0, a pullback to a neutral RSI could mean a 10–15% drop even if fundamentals hold up, especially since the stock is still at a 40.5x trailing P/E.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings surprises or major contract wins with large banks, as these could validate or challenge the 36.3% EPS growth expectation.