GPK Stock Analysis — Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Sector: Packaging
AI Verdict
You’re paying a low price for a business with a real cost advantage, but the market expects profits to plunge, so the cheap multiple only makes sense if the earnings hit proves temporary.
Competitive Moat
Graphic Packaging specializes in paperboard packaging for consumer goods, leveraging long-term supply contracts with major food and beverage companies to secure stable demand. Their scale and integrated manufacturing network create cost advantages that are difficult for smaller competitors to match.
Summary
GPK stands out for its ultra-low 6.3x trailing P/E, but faces a sharp earnings drop ahead.
Where It Stands
GPK trades at 10.9x next year's earnings, which is far below the industrials sector median of 20x, but analysts expect EPS to fall by -41.7% over the next year.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 6.3x
- Forward P/E: 10.9x
- Earnings Growth: -0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 52-Week High: $21.24
- 52-Week Low: $8.79
Analyst Consensus
1 Buy · 12 Hold · 7 Sell (20 analysts)
Bull Case
The 6.3x trailing P/E is extremely cheap compared to the sector, suggesting the market is already pricing in a lot of bad news.
Bear Case
With forward EPS expected to drop -41.7%, even the low 10.9x forward P/E could rise sharply if estimates keep falling.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—if the EPS decline is less severe than -41.7%, the stock could re-rate quickly.