HCA Stock Analysis — HCA Healthcare
Sector: Healthcare
AI Verdict
HCA trades at 12.7x next year's earnings—cheap for a hospital network with a defensible moat and 7% growth, but the upside is limited unless growth accelerates or the sector rerates.
Competitive Moat
HCA operates one of the largest networks of for-profit hospitals in the U.S., giving it scale advantages in purchasing, staffing, and negotiating with insurers. Its dense regional presence creates local dominance, making it hard for new entrants to compete on cost or access.
Summary
HCA's scale-driven hospital network is trading at a discount to the typical healthcare stock despite steady earnings growth.
Where It Stands
HCA is up 5.07% over the past year, trades at 12.7x forward earnings versus the healthcare sector median of 22x, and its RSI of 63.9 signals it is nearing elevated territory.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 63.9 — Near Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 13.6x
- Forward P/E: 12.7x
- PEG Ratio: 1.70
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $88.8B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: 5.07%
- 52-Week High: $556.52
- 52-Week Low: $353.99
Analyst Consensus
17 Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell (30 analysts) · Target $439.67
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth expected at 7.1% and a forward P/E of 12.7x, you're paying a below-average price for steady, repeatable earnings.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to 11x (closer to energy sector multiples), the stock could drop about 13% even if earnings meet expectations.
Catalyst to Watch
Quarterly earnings beats or misses that shift the forward EPS growth rate above or below 7.1% will likely move the valuation multiple.