HLT Stock Analysis — Hilton Worldwide
Sector: Hospitality
AI Verdict
Hilton trades at 36.8x next year's earnings while analysts expect nearly 48% EPS growth—you're paying a steep premium that only makes sense if its loyalty-driven moat keeps delivering outsized profit gains.
Competitive Moat
Hilton controls a portfolio of globally recognized hotel brands and benefits from a high-switching-cost loyalty program (Hilton Honors) that locks in frequent travelers. Its asset-light franchise model scales efficiently, making it hard for new entrants to match its global reach and network effects.
Summary
Hilton's 47.7% expected EPS growth is drawing attention as the stock trades at a premium and sits in overbought territory.
Where It Stands
Hilton has delivered a 50.02% one-year return and trades at 36.8x forward earnings—nearly double the hospitality sector's typical 20x—while its RSI of 75.2 signals overbought conditions.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 75.2 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 54.3x
- Forward P/E: 36.8x
- PEG Ratio: 1.15
- Earnings Growth: +0.5%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $76.1B
- Dividend Yield: 0.00%
- 1-Year Return: 50.02%
- 52-Week High: $344.75
- 52-Week Low: $214.04
Analyst Consensus
17 Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell (32 analysts)
Bull Case
Analysts expect EPS to jump 47.7% next year, which helps justify the high 36.8x forward P/E given Hilton's 1.15 PEG ratio.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts from 54.3x trailing to the sector median of 20x, the stock could see a 63% valuation drop even before factoring in overbought RSI risk.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings surprises or loyalty program growth metrics—either could confirm or undermine the 47.7% EPS growth thesis.