HLT Stock Analysis — Hilton Worldwide
Sector: Hospitality
AI Verdict
You're paying up for Hilton at 35.6x next year's earnings, but the loyalty-driven moat and 44.3% growth target mean it could be cheap if execution matches the hype.
Competitive Moat
Hilton operates a global portfolio of hotel brands with a powerful loyalty program (Hilton Honors) that drives repeat business and creates switching costs for both travelers and property owners. Its asset-light franchise model scales efficiently, letting Hilton expand rapidly without tying up capital in real estate.
Summary
Hilton's 44.3% forward EPS growth expectation is drawing attention despite a high 35.6x forward P/E.
Where It Stands
Shares are up 23.11% over the past year, RSI is oversold at 30.2, and the stock trades at 35.6x forward earnings versus a sector median of 20x for consumer services.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 30.2 — Near Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 51.4x
- Forward P/E: 35.6x
- PEG Ratio: 1.12
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $76.5B
- Dividend Yield: 0.00%
- 1-Year Return: 23.11%
- 52-Week High: $358.00
- 52-Week Low: $253.54
Analyst Consensus
17 Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell (31 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts expecting 44.3% EPS growth next year, the 35.6x forward P/E looks justified if Hilton delivers on those numbers.
Bear Case
If the P/E falls from 35.6x to the sector median 20x, the stock could lose over 40% even if earnings hit targets.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly EPS guidance updates — any miss or downgrade could trigger a sharp P/E compression.