HOG Stock Analysis — Harley-Davidson
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
AI Verdict
Harley-Davidson trades at 33.2x next year's earnings despite analysts expecting profits to collapse by -76.6%—that's paying a premium the numbers don't yet support, and the brand moat alone may not be enough if demand keeps sliding.
Competitive Moat
Harley-Davidson commands a brand moat built on decades of cultural cachet and a loyal customer base, making its motorcycles status symbols with few direct substitutes. The company’s control over its dealership network and aftermarket parts ecosystem further entrenches customer loyalty and pricing power.
Summary
Harley-Davidson’s sharp -76.6% forward EPS growth expectation signals a dramatic earnings reset ahead.
Where It Stands
The stock delivered -13.8% revenue growth last year and trades at 33.2x forward earnings, far above the consumer discretionary median of 20x, while analysts expect a -76.6% collapse in EPS.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 7.8x
- Forward P/E: 33.2x
- Earnings Growth: -0.8%
- Revenue Growth: -0.1%
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 52-Week High: $31.25
- 52-Week Low: $17.09
Analyst Consensus
8 Buy · 10 Hold · 3 Sell (21 analysts)
Bull Case
The current 7.8x trailing P/E suggests the market may be discounting a turnaround if Harley can stabilize earnings after this year’s projected drop.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E compresses from 33.2x back toward the sector median of 20x, the stock could lose over 35% even without further earnings declines.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for the next quarterly earnings report—any sign of less-severe EPS declines than the -76.6% forecast could spark a relief rally.