KMX Stock Analysis — CarMax
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
CarMax trades at 15.9x next year's earnings with nearly 40% EPS growth expected—cheap for the growth on offer if its pricing and inventory moat can weather the current demand slump.
Competitive Moat
CarMax operates the largest used car dealership network in the US, leveraging nationwide inventory scale and proprietary pricing algorithms to offer consistent, no-haggle buying experiences. Its size and data-driven pricing create barriers for smaller competitors and online entrants trying to match inventory breadth and transaction trust.
Summary
CarMax's stock is deeply oversold with an RSI of 31.4 and trades at a steep discount to its expected earnings growth.
Where It Stands
Shares are down -43.88% over the past year, the RSI is oversold at 31.4, and the forward P/E of 15.9x is below the retail sector's typical 20x despite a forecasted 39.8% EPS rebound.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 31.4 — Near Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 22.2x
- Forward P/E: 15.9x
- PEG Ratio: 0.55
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Market Cap: $5.3B
- 1-Year Return: -43.88%
- 52-Week High: $71.99
- 52-Week Low: $30.26
Analyst Consensus
2 Buy · 17 Hold · 8 Sell (27 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS expected to jump 39.8% and the stock trading at just 15.9x next year's earnings, you're paying a low price for a big earnings recovery if CarMax's scale advantage holds.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E reverts to the 12x–13x range typical of deep cyclical slumps, the stock could see another 18–25% downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings and used car margin trends—if CarMax can stabilize margins and show inventory turnover improvement, the growth narrative regains credibility.