LII Stock Analysis — Lennox International
Sector: Industrials
AI Verdict
Lennox trades at 20.6x forward earnings for 17.3% expected EPS growth, which is a fair price if its installer network keeps competitors at bay, but the recent revenue dip means the growth story needs to show up soon.
Competitive Moat
Lennox International designs and manufactures HVAC systems, with a defensible moat built on its dense North American distribution network and deep relationships with installers and service providers. This entrenched channel presence makes it difficult for new entrants to displace Lennox in the residential and light commercial HVAC market.
Summary
Lennox is notable for its stable installer relationships and dealer network, which anchor its market share despite recent revenue contraction.
Where It Stands
The stock is up against a 1-year return of -9.19%, trades at 20.6x next year's earnings (below the 20x industrials median), and an RSI of 48.6 signals a neutral, range-bound setup.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 48.6 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 24.1x
- Forward P/E: 20.6x
- PEG Ratio: 1.35
- Earnings Growth: +0.2%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Market Cap: $19.1B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: -9.19%
- 52-Week High: $689.44
- 52-Week Low: $434.06
Analyst Consensus
9 Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell (23 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts expecting 17.3% forward EPS growth and a forward P/E of 20.6x, you're paying a fair price for above-average earnings momentum if Lennox's distribution moat holds.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x despite the 17.3% growth, shares could see further downside given the -2.0% trailing revenue growth and lack of near-term momentum.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for the next earnings report to see if Lennox can reverse its -2.0% YoY revenue decline, as a return to growth would justify the current multiple.