MCD Stock Analysis — McDonald's
Sector: Consumer Staples
AI Verdict
McDonald's trades at 22x next year's earnings with 10.9% EPS growth expected—you're paying a bit extra for the moat, but the oversold RSI and defensible franchise model make the growth outlook credible if sentiment turns.
Competitive Moat
McDonald's owns a vast global network of franchised restaurants, giving it unmatched scale and bargaining power in supply chains. Its real estate ownership model and entrenched brand recognition create high switching costs for franchisees and consumers.
Summary
McDonald's RSI of 33.9 signals the stock is oversold after a -7.97% 1-year return, making it a potential rebound candidate.
Where It Stands
With a 1-year return of -7.97%, an RSI of 33.9 (oversold), and a forward P/E of 22.0x versus the consumer staples median of 20x, McDonald's is trading at a slight premium despite recent weakness.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 33.9 — Near Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 24.4x
- Forward P/E: 22.0x
- PEG Ratio: 2.35
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $208.0B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: -7.97%
- 52-Week High: $341.75
- 52-Week Low: $283.47
Analyst Consensus
24 Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell (42 analysts)
Bull Case
Forward EPS growth of 10.9% paired with a 22.0x forward P/E means investors are paying a modest premium for steady earnings expansion and the security of a $208.0B market cap.
Bear Case
A trailing PEG of 2.35 and a P/E above the sector median suggest that if sentiment doesn't recover, further P/E compression could erase another 10% from the stock price.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly same-store sales updates—if growth re-accelerates above the 3.7% trailing rate, the premium may be justified.