MOS Stock Analysis — Mosaic Company (The)
Sector: Materials
AI Verdict
Mosaic trades at 17.3x next year’s earnings with sky-high growth expectations, so you’re getting a low price for a huge rebound — but if the fertilizer cycle disappoints, the premium vanishes fast.
Competitive Moat
Mosaic is one of the world’s largest producers of phosphate and potash fertilizers, controlling critical mining assets and logistics infrastructure that are difficult for new entrants to replicate. Its scale and vertical integration allow it to weather commodity cycles better than smaller rivals.
Summary
Mosaic’s stock is in focus due to a massive expected rebound in earnings after a tough year for fertilizer prices.
Where It Stands
Shares are down -38.93% over the past year with an RSI of 47.1 (neutral), and the stock trades at 17.3x next year’s earnings versus a trailing P/E of 172.3x — a sharp reset reflecting analyst forecasts for a huge profit recovery.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 47.1 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 172.3x
- Forward P/E: 17.3x
- PEG Ratio: 0.19
- Earnings Growth: +9.0%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $7.0B
- Dividend Yield: 0.04%
- 1-Year Return: -38.93%
- 52-Week High: $37.53
- 52-Week Low: $19.80
Analyst Consensus
12 Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell (26 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth estimated at 897.8%, you’re paying just 17.3x for a near-10x earnings jump — cheap for the growth if fertilizer prices rebound as expected.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E reverts to the sector’s 12x median instead of 17.3x, the stock could lose roughly 30% from here if the earnings surge doesn’t materialize.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings and fertilizer price trends — any miss on the 897.8% EPS growth target would likely trigger a sharp rerating.