MOS Stock Analysis — Mosaic Company (The)
Sector: Materials
AI Verdict
Mosaic trades at 16.2x next year's earnings despite analysts expecting -14.9% EPS growth, so you're paying a premium the numbers don't yet support—even with its resource control moat, the market is betting on a turnaround that hasn't shown up in the forecasts.
Competitive Moat
Mosaic is a top producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers, with cost advantages from vertically integrated mining and processing operations. Its scale and control over key mineral resources create barriers to entry in a cyclical, commodity-driven industry.
Summary
Mosaic's shares are hovering near oversold territory with an RSI of 35.7 after a -23.13% one-year return.
Where It Stands
Mosaic trades at 16.2x next year's earnings, above the sector's typical 12x for energy/materials, while analysts expect -14.9% EPS growth and the stock has an RSI of 35.7 signaling it's close to oversold.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 35.7 — Near Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 13.8x
- Forward P/E: 16.2x
- Earnings Growth: -0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $7.4B
- Dividend Yield: 0.04%
- 1-Year Return: -23.13%
- 52-Week High: $38.23
- 52-Week Low: $22.74
Analyst Consensus
10 Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell (25 analysts)
Bull Case
With a trailing P/E of 13.8x and a market cap of $7.4B, Mosaic is valued below many peers on a trailing basis, suggesting limited downside if fertilizer prices stabilize.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E of 16.2x compresses to the sector's 12x median, the stock could see a further 26% downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for global fertilizer price movements and crop demand data, as any rebound could quickly shift EPS growth expectations.