MTG Stock Analysis — MGIC Investment Corporation
Sector: Financials
AI Verdict
MTG trades at 8.3x next year's earnings while analysts expect -8.2% EPS growth, so it's cheap for a reason and the moat only helps if earnings can stop shrinking.
Competitive Moat
MGIC provides private mortgage insurance, a business protected by high regulatory barriers and long-standing relationships with mortgage originators. Its scale and underwriting data history make it hard for new entrants to compete profitably.
Summary
MTG stands out for its extremely low 8.3x forward P/E, but faces negative earnings growth expectations.
Where It Stands
MTG delivered just 0.5% revenue growth last year and trades at 8.3x forward earnings, well below the financials sector median of 14x.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 7.7x
- Forward P/E: 8.3x
- Earnings Growth: -0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 52-Week High: $29.97
- 52-Week Low: $24.78
Analyst Consensus
1 Buy · 6 Hold · 6 Sell (13 analysts)
Bull Case
With a trailing P/E of 7.7x, MTG is priced at a steep discount to peers, offering value if earnings stabilize.
Bear Case
Forward EPS is expected to fall by -8.2%, so if the P/E re-rates closer to the sector median, investors could see little upside or even a loss despite the low multiple.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates — any positive surprise on EPS guidance could force a re-evaluation of the low valuation.