MTG Stock Analysis — MGIC Investment Corporation
Sector: Financials
AI Verdict
You’re getting a low price for a shrinking earnings stream, so unless the moat delivers a turnaround, this discount may persist.
Competitive Moat
MGIC provides private mortgage insurance, a business with high regulatory barriers and sticky relationships with lenders. The company's long operating history and established partnerships make it difficult for new entrants to displace them.
Summary
MTG stands out for trading at a steep discount to the financial sector median, but faces negative earnings growth expectations.
Where It Stands
MTG trades at 9.6x next year's earnings, well below the financial sector median of 14x, but with forward EPS expected to shrink by -11.1%.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 8.5x
- Forward P/E: 9.6x
- Earnings Growth: -0.1%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 52-Week High: $31.89
- 52-Week Low: $24.69
Analyst Consensus
1 Buy · 6 Hold · 6 Sell (13 analysts)
Bull Case
A forward P/E of 9.6x means you’re paying much less than the sector average for each dollar of next year’s earnings.
Bear Case
If the market re-rates MTG to 8.5x trailing P/E as earnings fall, the stock could see further downside as EPS is expected to drop -11.1%.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings surprises or changes in mortgage default rates, as either could shift the earnings outlook and valuation.