NNN Stock Analysis — NNN REIT, Inc.
Sector: REIT
AI Verdict
You're paying a modest premium for NNN's predictable income stream, but at 20.5x forward earnings and only 7.3% growth expected, the numbers suggest a fair but unexciting value unless growth surprises to the upside.
Competitive Moat
NNN owns and leases a diversified portfolio of single-tenant retail properties under long-term net leases, which provides stable, predictable rental income insulated from most operating expenses. The defensibility comes from its scale and tenant diversification, reducing risk from individual tenant defaults.
Summary
NNN stands out for its stable cash flows from long-term net leases in a diversified retail property portfolio.
Where It Stands
NNN trades at 20.5x next year's earnings, just above the typical REIT sector median, with analysts expecting 7.3% EPS growth and a trailing P/E of 22.0x.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 22.0x
- Forward P/E: 20.5x
- PEG Ratio: 3.08
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Dividend Yield: 0.05%
- 52-Week High: $46.03
- 52-Week Low: $38.90
Analyst Consensus
3 Buy · 14 Hold · 8 Sell (25 analysts)
Bull Case
The 20.5x forward P/E is reasonable for a REIT with 7.3% expected EPS growth and a history of 5.8% revenue growth, especially given the portfolio's stability.
Bear Case
With a trailing PEG of 3.08, investors are paying a premium the earnings growth doesn't fully justify, so any P/E compression to the sector median could mean a 10–15% downside.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for tenant retention rates and lease renewal activity, as a drop could challenge the earnings growth forecast.