NOC Stock Analysis — Northrop Grumman

Sector: Defense & Aerospace

AI Verdict

You're paying a full price for a shrinking earnings outlook, and unless Northrop's entrenched defense contracts deliver a surprise, the numbers don't justify a higher multiple.

Competitive Moat

Northrop Grumman builds advanced defense systems, including stealth bombers and missile defense, with decades-long government contracts that create high switching costs and regulatory barriers. Its deep integration into U.S. military procurement makes its position difficult for new entrants to challenge.

Summary

NOC's 1-year return of -6.16% and RSI of 41.4 signal a stock that's lagged and is now cooling off.

Where It Stands

Northrop trades at 17.7x next year's earnings, a slight premium to the 14x sector median for financials, but with consensus expecting -4.5% EPS growth and an RSI of 41.4 indicating no momentum.

Key Metrics

RSI: 41.4 — Neutral
Trailing P/E: 16.9x
Forward P/E: 17.7x
Earnings Growth: -0.0%
Revenue Growth: +0.1%
Market Cap: $75.8B
Dividend Yield: 0.02%
1-Year Return: -6.16%
52-Week High: $774.00
52-Week Low: $479.02

Analyst Consensus

18 Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell (28 analysts)

Bull Case

The 16.9x trailing P/E is below the 20x industrials median, suggesting the market is not pricing in any upside from its 5.9% trailing revenue growth.

Bear Case

With forward EPS expected to shrink by -4.5% and a forward P/E of 17.7x, any further P/E compression to the sector median could mean a 20% hit to valuation.

Catalyst to Watch

Watch for major contract wins or defense budget shifts—either could change the negative earnings outlook.