NOC Stock Analysis — Northrop Grumman
Sector: Aerospace & Defense
AI Verdict
Northrop Grumman trades at 20.6x next year's earnings despite analysts expecting a -12.6% drop in EPS, so you're paying a premium the numbers don't yet support unless its entrenched defense contracts deliver a rebound.
Competitive Moat
Northrop Grumman builds critical defense systems like stealth bombers and missile defense, protected by decades-long government contracts and high barriers to entry in classified technologies. Its scale, regulatory approvals, and integration into U.S. defense infrastructure make it hard for new competitors to displace.
Summary
NOC's government contract backlog and role in next-generation defense projects keep it central to U.S. military spending.
Where It Stands
Northrop Grumman is up 21.54% over the past year and 70% over five years, but with an RSI of 7.8 it is extremely oversold, and its 20.6x forward P/E is slightly below the industrials median of 20x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 7.8 — Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 18.0x
- Forward P/E: 20.6x
- Earnings Growth: -0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $81.7B
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 1-Year Return: 21.54%
- 5-Year Return: 70%
- 52-Week High: $774.00
- 52-Week Low: $453.01
Analyst Consensus
17 Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell (29 analysts)
Bull Case
The stock's 18.0x trailing P/E is below many defense peers, and its 5.0% revenue growth shows ongoing demand for its core platforms.
Bear Case
With forward EPS expected to drop -12.6% and a forward P/E of 20.6x, any further P/E compression to the sector median would mean a 3% downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for upcoming U.S. defense budget decisions or major contract wins, as a surprise in either direction could sharply move earnings expectations.