NTRS Stock Analysis — Northern Trust
Sector: Financials
AI Verdict
Northern Trust trades at 15.6x next year's earnings for 25.2% projected EPS growth, which is cheap for the growth on offer if its sticky institutional client base keeps delivering, but the overbought RSI warns of short-term pullback risk.
Competitive Moat
Northern Trust specializes in custody, asset servicing, and wealth management for institutional and ultra-high-net-worth clients, with sticky relationships due to regulatory trust requirements and high switching costs. Its scale and reputation in institutional trust services create barriers for smaller entrants.
Summary
A 25.2% expected jump in earnings and a forward P/E of 15.6x put Northern Trust in the spotlight after a 47.46% 1-year run.
Where It Stands
Shares are up 47.46% over the past year with an RSI of 71.3 (overbought) and trade at 15.6x forward earnings, slightly above the financial sector median of 14x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 71.3 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 19.5x
- Forward P/E: 15.6x
- PEG Ratio: 0.83
- Earnings Growth: +0.3%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Market Cap: $34.5B
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 1-Year Return: 47.46%
- 52-Week High: $185.57
- 52-Week Low: $118.99
Analyst Consensus
8 Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell (22 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts forecasting 25.2% EPS growth and the stock trading at just 15.6x forward earnings, you're paying a modest multiple for a big earnings rebound if it materializes.
Bear Case
An RSI of 71.3 signals overbought territory, so even a return to the sector median P/E of 14x would mean a 10% valuation pullback from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—if EPS growth hits the 25.2% target, the current valuation could hold, but a miss risks a sharp rerating.