OLLI Stock Analysis — Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
OLLI trades at 15.3x next year's earnings while analysts expect 16.2% EPS growth—this is cheap for the growth you're getting if its closeout sourcing moat holds up.
Competitive Moat
Ollie's operates a closeout retail model, sourcing excess inventory and overstock goods at steep discounts and passing savings to customers, which creates a loyal bargain-hunting customer base. Its moat comes from long-standing supplier relationships and a reputation for unpredictable treasure-hunt deals that are hard for traditional retailers to replicate.
Summary
Ollie's is notable for its ability to consistently grow earnings while trading at a discount to most retail peers.
Where It Stands
OLLI trades at 15.3x next year's earnings, below the consumer staples sector median of 20x, with analysts expecting 16.2% EPS growth and a trailing PEG of 1.10 signaling fair value for the growth on offer.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 17.7x
- Forward P/E: 15.3x
- PEG Ratio: 1.10
- Earnings Growth: +0.2%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- 52-Week High: $139.21
- 52-Week Low: $60.29
Analyst Consensus
18 Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell (22 analysts)
Bull Case
Forward EPS growth of 16.2% paired with a 15.3x forward P/E means you're paying a lower multiple for a business still expanding faster than most discount retailers.
Bear Case
If OLLI's P/E were to compress to the sector median of 20x, upside is limited, but if growth stalls and the multiple drops to 12x (in line with deep discounters), shares could lose over 20%.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings reports—if Ollie's can keep delivering double-digit EPS growth, the current multiple could expand.