ORLY Stock Analysis — O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
O'Reilly trades at 28.9x next year's earnings while growth is forecast at 14.5%, so you're paying up for a defensive moat in auto parts distribution, but the premium looks steep unless that growth proves bulletproof.
Competitive Moat
O'Reilly Auto Parts operates a dense network of stores serving both professional mechanics and DIY customers, giving it scale advantages in distribution and inventory breadth. Its moat is reinforced by local market dominance and high switching costs for commercial clients who rely on rapid, reliable parts delivery.
Summary
O'Reilly is notable for its stable, defensive business model and a forward P/E of 28.9x despite only 14.5% expected EPS growth.
Where It Stands
Shares have returned just 0.31% over the past year, the RSI is a cooling 42.2, and the stock trades at 28.9x forward earnings versus the retail sector's typical 20x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 42.2 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 33.1x
- Forward P/E: 28.9x
- PEG Ratio: 2.10
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $76.7B
- 1-Year Return: 0.31%
- 52-Week High: $108.72
- 52-Week Low: $86.77
Analyst Consensus
29 Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell (36 analysts)
Bull Case
Analysts expect 14.5% EPS growth next year, which is robust for a defensive retailer with a 6.4% revenue growth and a $76.7B market cap.
Bear Case
At 28.9x forward earnings and a trailing PEG of 2.10, a return to the sector median P/E of 20x would mean a 31% drop from current levels if growth disappoints.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings — any miss on the 14.5% EPS growth consensus could trigger a sharp P/E compression.