PGR Stock Analysis — Progressive Corporation
Sector: Financials
AI Verdict
Progressive trades below the sector average at 12.8x forward earnings, but with earnings expected to fall and the stock technically overbought, you’re paying up for a data-driven moat that needs to deliver a turnaround fast.
Competitive Moat
Progressive specializes in auto and property insurance, leveraging advanced telematics and data analytics to price risk more accurately than many competitors. Its proprietary Snapshot program and direct-to-consumer digital infrastructure create switching costs and allow for rapid underwriting adjustments.
Summary
Progressive's stock is flashing overbought signals with an RSI of 75.9 even as forward earnings are expected to shrink.
Where It Stands
The stock trades at 12.8x next year's earnings, below the financials sector median of 14x, but with a 1-year return of -6.99% and an RSI of 75.9 indicating overbought territory.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 75.9 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 11.8x
- Forward P/E: 12.8x
- Earnings Growth: -0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $135.6B
- Dividend Yield: 0.00%
- 1-Year Return: -6.99%
- 52-Week High: $260.10
- 52-Week Low: $189.20
Analyst Consensus
13 Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell (31 analysts)
Bull Case
At 12.8x forward earnings, you’re paying less than the sector median for a company with a $135.6B market cap and a track record of using data to drive 13.9% revenue growth last year.
Bear Case
With forward EPS expected to drop -7.4% and the RSI at 75.9, a pullback to a sector-average P/E could mean a 10%+ downside from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—if EPS stabilizes or beats the -7.4% consensus decline, the valuation could hold, but a miss risks a sharp correction.