PKG Stock Analysis — Packaging Corporation of America
Sector: Industrials
AI Verdict
PKG trades at a slight premium to the sector but the numbers say you’re getting above-average growth for the price, as long as its customer lock-in and logistics edge keep delivering.
Competitive Moat
PKG operates a network of integrated mills and box plants, giving it scale and logistics advantages in the North American containerboard and packaging market. Long-term customer contracts and high switching costs for large clients provide stability against new entrants.
Summary
Analysts expect PKG’s earnings to jump 36.3% next year, driving a sharp drop in its forward P/E.
Where It Stands
PKG is up 14.61% over the past year, trades at 20.7x next year's earnings (above the industrials median of 20x), and its RSI of 55.4 signals a neutral zone.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 55.4 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 28.3x
- Forward P/E: 20.7x
- PEG Ratio: 0.73
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $20.7B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: 14.61%
- 52-Week High: $249.51
- 52-Week Low: $189.03
Analyst Consensus
11 Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell (16 analysts)
Bull Case
With 36.3% forward EPS growth expected, PKG’s 20.7x forward P/E is cheap for the growth on offer if its scale-driven moat holds up.
Bear Case
If PKG’s P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x, that’s a 3.4% downside from the current forward multiple even before factoring in any earnings miss.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings — any sign that EPS growth falls short of the 36.3% consensus could trigger a rerating.