RUN Stock Analysis — Sunrun Inc.
Sector: Energy
AI Verdict
You're paying up for a narrative that hasn't fully materialised, with a 15.0x forward P/E despite sharply negative earnings growth and a moat that's vulnerable to policy and rate shifts.
Competitive Moat
Sunrun designs, installs, and finances residential solar systems, locking in customers through long-term power purchase agreements that create high switching costs. Its scale in distributed solar and financing partnerships give it a cost-of-capital edge over smaller installers.
Summary
Sunrun's business model hinges on locking in homeowners with long-term solar contracts, making its customer base sticky.
Where It Stands
Sunrun trades at 15.0x next year's earnings, well above the energy sector median of 12x, while analysts expect EPS to fall by 64.8% over the next year.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 5.3x
- Forward P/E: 15.0x
- Earnings Growth: -0.6%
- Revenue Growth: +0.6%
- 52-Week High: $22.44
- 52-Week Low: $8.61
Analyst Consensus
16 Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell (28 analysts)
Bull Case
Sunrun posted 63.2% revenue growth last year, showing rapid expansion of its solar footprint even as the sector faces headwinds.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E of 15.0x reverts to the sector median of 12x, the stock could see a 20% valuation drop on top of the expected -64.8% EPS decline.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for changes in solar tax credit policy or financing rates, as either could materially shift Sunrun's cost structure and customer acquisition pace.