SMG Stock Analysis — Scotts Miracle-Gro
Sector: Consumer staples
AI Verdict
SMG trades at 13.6x next year's earnings while the market expects a dramatic 80.7% EPS rebound—this is cheap for the growth on offer, but the moat depends on branded retail dominance and Hawthorne's ability to offset core declines.
Competitive Moat
Scotts Miracle-Gro dominates the lawn and garden market through exclusive retail partnerships and brand recognition that creates shelf space and pricing power. Its Hawthorne segment gives it a foothold in hydroponics and cannabis cultivation supplies, diversifying its defensibility.
Summary
SMG is notable for its sharp earnings rebound forecast, with forward EPS expected to jump 80.7%.
Where It Stands
Shares trade at 13.6x forward earnings versus the consumer staples median of 20x, after a trailing revenue decline of 5.8%.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 24.6x
- Forward P/E: 13.6x
- PEG Ratio: 0.30
- Earnings Growth: +0.8%
- Revenue Growth: -0.1%
- Dividend Yield: 0.04%
- 52-Week High: $72.35
- 52-Week Low: $52.00
Analyst Consensus
7 Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell (11 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts projecting 80.7% EPS growth and a forward P/E of just 13.6x, the stock is priced cheaply for a turnaround if those earnings materialize.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x without the 80.7% EPS growth materializing, the stock could see a sharp de-rating and further downside.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings to confirm the expected EPS rebound; any miss against the 80.7% growth consensus could trigger a rerating.