STZ Stock Analysis — Constellation Brands
Sector: Consumer Staples
AI Verdict
STZ is cheap for the growth you're getting, but the market is skeptical that 26.6% EPS growth is sustainable given recent -10.5% revenue contraction, so the moat around Modelo and Corona needs to prove it can still drive profits.
Competitive Moat
Constellation Brands owns exclusive U.S. rights to top imported beer brands like Modelo and Corona, giving it pricing power and shelf space leverage in a slow-changing alcohol market. Its distribution agreements and entrenched retail relationships make it hard for new entrants to displace its brands.
Summary
STZ trades at just 11.6x next year's earnings while analysts expect 26.6% EPS growth, a rare combination in consumer staples.
Where It Stands
The stock is down -18.04% over the past year, with an RSI of 38.1 signaling it's near oversold territory, and trades at 11.6x forward earnings versus a sector median of 20x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 38.1 — Near Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 14.7x
- Forward P/E: 11.6x
- PEG Ratio: 0.55
- Earnings Growth: +0.3%
- Revenue Growth: -0.1%
- Market Cap: $24.3B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: -18.04%
- 52-Week High: $178.14
- 52-Week Low: $126.45
Analyst Consensus
17 Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell (28 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth expected at 26.6% and a forward P/E of 11.6x, you're paying a low price for unusually high earnings growth in this sector.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x only after growth slows, a further de-rating from the current 14.7x trailing P/E could mean more downside, especially if the -10.5% revenue decline persists.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates — any sign that revenue stabilizes or returns to growth could trigger a rerating.