TSCO Stock Analysis — Tractor Supply Company
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
TSCO trades at 16.7x next year's earnings with just 4.7% EPS growth expected, so while it's cheap for retail, the numbers say you're paying up for a moat that only pays off if rural demand stabilizes soon.
Competitive Moat
Tractor Supply dominates rural lifestyle retail with a dense store network in underserved areas, making it hard for big-box competitors to match its local presence. Its exclusive brands and tailored product mix create customer loyalty among hobby farmers and rural homeowners.
Summary
A sub-10 RSI and -27.37% one-year return signal extreme pessimism despite a still-profitable business.
Where It Stands
TSCO is down -27.37% over the past year, trades at 16.7x forward earnings versus the retail sector median of ~20x, and has an RSI of 9.6, which is deeply oversold territory.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 9.6 — Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 17.5x
- Forward P/E: 16.7x
- PEG Ratio: 3.55
- Earnings Growth: +0.0%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $18.7B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: -27.37%
- 52-Week High: $63.99
- 52-Week Low: $35.51
Analyst Consensus
22 Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell (37 analysts)
Bull Case
At 16.7x forward earnings and with a 4.7% expected EPS growth, the stock is now cheaper than the sector median for a business with a defensible rural niche.
Bear Case
With a trailing PEG of 3.55 and only 4.7% forward EPS growth, even a modest P/E re-rating to 14x would cut another ~16% off the stock price from here.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings and same-store sales trends — a surprise rebound in rural consumer spending could spark a sharp reversal from oversold levels.