TSCO Stock Analysis — Tractor Supply Company
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
TSCO is cheap for the growth you're getting at 14.8x forward P/E, but the extreme RSI and recent volatility mean you're paying up for a rebound narrative that could unwind fast if rural demand or loyalty retention falters.
Competitive Moat
Tractor Supply dominates rural and suburban markets by offering a curated mix of farm supplies, pet products, and hardware in convenient locations underserved by big-box competitors. Its loyalty program and private label brands create repeat business and pricing power that are hard for online-only retailers to replicate.
Summary
RSI at 80.1 signals extreme overbought conditions despite a -39.46% one-year return.
Where It Stands
TSCO trades at 14.8x next year's earnings with analysts forecasting 27.9% EPS growth, but its RSI of 80.1 suggests the stock is overheated after a sharp -39.46% drop over the past year.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 80.1 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 18.9x
- Forward P/E: 14.8x
- PEG Ratio: 0.75
- Earnings Growth: +0.3%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $18.8B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: -39.46%
- 52-Week High: $62.89
- 52-Week Low: $28.36
Analyst Consensus
20 Buy · 17 Hold · 0 Sell (37 analysts)
Bull Case
You're paying 14.8x forward earnings for a company expected to grow EPS by 27.9% next year, which is cheap for the growth on offer in retail.
Bear Case
With an RSI of 80.1, any pullback toward a neutral RSI could mean a double-digit percentage drop from current levels, especially after a -39.46% 1-year return.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch the next quarterly earnings for signs that the 27.9% EPS growth forecast is achievable, as any miss could trigger a sharp correction from overbought levels.