TSCO Stock Analysis — Tractor Supply Company
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
TSCO looks cheap for the growth on offer, but the market is clearly skeptical that its rural moat will translate to a rebound—this is priced for a turnaround that still needs to show up in results.
Competitive Moat
Tractor Supply dominates rural lifestyle retail with a dense store network in underserved small towns, making it hard for national chains or e-commerce to match its local presence and tailored product mix. Its loyalty program and exclusive brands further lock in a customer base that values convenience and community ties.
Summary
TSCO trades at 13.5x next year's earnings with double-digit EPS growth expected, making it unusually cheap for a specialty retailer.
Where It Stands
The stock is down -46.40% over the past year, trades at 13.5x forward earnings versus a consumer staples median of 20x, and its RSI of 46.8 signals a cooling, not oversold, setup.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 46.8 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 14.9x
- Forward P/E: 13.5x
- PEG Ratio: 0.98
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $16.0B
- Dividend Yield: 0.03%
- 1-Year Return: -46.40%
- 52-Week High: $63.99
- 52-Week Low: $28.36
Analyst Consensus
21 Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell (37 analysts)
Bull Case
You're paying just 13.5x forward earnings for 11.1% expected EPS growth, a rare combination in retail where the PEG ratio sits at a growth-justified 0.98.
Bear Case
If the P/E multiple falls from 13.5x to 12x (in line with deep value retail), the stock could lose another 11% even if earnings hit targets.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly same-store sales and margin updates—any sign of traffic stabilization or margin recovery could quickly re-rate the stock.