ULTA Stock Analysis — Ulta Beauty
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
Ulta trades at 15.4x next year's earnings while growth is expected to top 11%, making it cheap for the growth you're getting if its loyalty and in-store experience moat keeps competitors at bay.
Competitive Moat
Ulta Beauty combines a wide selection of mass and prestige cosmetics with in-store salon services, creating a one-stop destination that drives repeat traffic. Its loyalty program and exclusive product partnerships make it hard for both e-commerce and traditional retailers to replicate the experience.
Summary
Ulta is trading at a discount to the consumer staples sector median despite double-digit forward earnings growth and a resilient omnichannel model.
Where It Stands
Ulta is down -5.82% over the past year, trades at 15.4x next year's earnings (below the consumer staples median of 20x), and its RSI of 46.5 signals a cooling period after recent weakness.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 46.5 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 17.1x
- Forward P/E: 15.4x
- PEG Ratio: 1.58
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.4%
- Market Cap: $19.6B
- 1-Year Return: -5.82%
- 52-Week High: $714.97
- 52-Week Low: $443.60
Analyst Consensus
25 Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell (34 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts expecting 11.1% forward EPS growth and a forward P/E of just 15.4x, you're paying less than the sector median for above-average growth if Ulta's loyalty-driven repeat business holds up.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts further to the sector median of 20x, the current 17.1x trailing multiple could compress further, risking more downside if growth expectations disappoint.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings and loyalty program updates—any miss on EPS or signs of customer churn could undermine the current valuation.