ULTA Stock Analysis — Ulta Beauty
Sector: Retail
AI Verdict
Ulta trades at 17.0x next year's earnings while analysts expect 17.4% EPS growth, so it's cheap for the growth you're getting if its loyalty-driven moat keeps traffic high.
Competitive Moat
Ulta Beauty combines a wide range of mass and prestige beauty brands with in-store salon services, creating a one-stop beauty destination that is hard for pure e-commerce or single-brand retailers to replicate. Its loyalty program and exclusive product partnerships drive repeat traffic and customer stickiness.
Summary
Ulta is trading at a discount to its historical average as earnings are expected to accelerate next year.
Where It Stands
Ulta has returned 4.29% over the past year, trades at 17.0x forward earnings versus the consumer staples median of 20x, and its RSI of 54.1 signals a neutral setup.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 54.1 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 20.0x
- Forward P/E: 17.0x
- PEG Ratio: 1.17
- Earnings Growth: +0.2%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $23.5B
- 1-Year Return: 4.29%
- 52-Week High: $714.97
- 52-Week Low: $443.60
Analyst Consensus
25 Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell (34 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth expected at 17.4% and a forward P/E of 17.0x, you're paying a below-sector-median multiple for double-digit earnings growth.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts from 17.0x to the sector median of 20x, upside is capped unless growth outpaces already-high expectations, and the 4.29% annual return shows the market is unconvinced so far.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—if Ulta beats the 17.4% EPS growth consensus, the stock could re-rate higher.