UNP Stock Analysis — Union Pacific Corporation
Sector: Industrials
AI Verdict
Union Pacific trades at 20.1x next year’s earnings for 7.7% expected growth, which is fair given its irreplaceable rail network, but not cheap if growth slows.
Competitive Moat
Union Pacific operates one of the largest freight rail networks in the western U.S., controlling critical rail corridors that are nearly impossible for new entrants to replicate due to land rights and regulatory barriers. Its scale and network density create cost advantages and high switching costs for major shippers.
Summary
Union Pacific stands out for its irreplaceable rail infrastructure and steady earnings growth outlook.
Where It Stands
Union Pacific has delivered a 20.38% 1-year return, trades at 20.1x forward earnings versus the industrials median of 20x, and its RSI of 50.1 signals a neutral setup.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 50.1 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 21.7x
- Forward P/E: 20.1x
- PEG Ratio: 2.95
- Earnings Growth: +0.1%
- Revenue Growth: +0.0%
- Market Cap: $156.4B
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 1-Year Return: 20.38%
- 52-Week High: $279.70
- 52-Week Low: $210.84
Analyst Consensus
19 Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell (29 analysts)
Bull Case
Forward EPS is expected to grow 7.7% while you pay a 20.1x forward P/E, which is in line with the sector for a business with hard-to-replicate assets.
Bear Case
With a trailing PEG ratio of 2.95 and a forward P/E only slightly below last year’s 21.7x, you’re paying a premium the growth rate doesn’t fully justify if earnings disappoint.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for regulatory changes or major volume shifts in freight demand—either could impact the network's pricing power and earnings trajectory.