UPS Stock Analysis — United Parcel Service
Sector: Logistics
AI Verdict
UPS trades at 13.7x next year's earnings while the market expects a huge earnings rebound; that's cheap for the growth you're getting if its network moat holds up.
Competitive Moat
UPS operates one of the largest integrated global logistics and delivery networks, with dense last-mile coverage and decades of route optimization data. Its scale and infrastructure create high barriers to entry for new competitors, especially in time-sensitive delivery.
Summary
UPS is trading at just 13.7x next year's earnings with analysts expecting a 42.8% jump in EPS, making it a rare value in logistics.
Where It Stands
UPS delivered a 20.46% one-year return and trades at 13.7x forward earnings, a discount to the industrials sector median of 20x, with a trailing P/E of 19.6x reflecting recent earnings pressure.
Key Metrics
- Trailing P/E: 19.6x
- Forward P/E: 13.7x
- PEG Ratio: 0.46
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Market Cap: $89.6B
- Dividend Yield: 0.04%
- 1-Year Return: 20.46%
- 52-Week High: $122.41
- 52-Week Low: $82.00
Analyst Consensus
18 Buy · 13 Hold · 4 Sell (35 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS growth forecast at 42.8% and a forward P/E of 13.7x, the stock is cheap for the growth on offer if network scale keeps competitors at bay.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E reverts to the sector median of 20x after a miss, shares could see little upside despite the current 20.46% one-year return.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings—if UPS delivers on the 42.8% EPS growth forecast, the low P/E could quickly re-rate higher.