VLO Stock Analysis — Valero Energy
Sector: Energy
AI Verdict
Valero trades at just 9.9x next year's earnings while the market expects nearly 88% EPS growth, so you're getting a rare bargain if its scale-driven cost edge holds up.
Competitive Moat
Valero operates one of the largest and most complex independent oil refining systems in the U.S., giving it scale and geographic flexibility to optimize margins across changing crude and fuel markets. Its integrated logistics and export capacity create cost advantages that smaller refiners can't easily replicate.
Summary
Valero's forward P/E of 9.9x and expected 87.6% EPS growth make it a standout among energy stocks.
Where It Stands
Shares are up 98.25% over the past year, RSI sits at a neutral 54.3, and the stock trades at 9.9x next year's earnings versus a sector median of 12x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 54.3 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 18.5x
- Forward P/E: 9.9x
- PEG Ratio: 0.21
- Earnings Growth: +0.9%
- Revenue Growth: -0.0%
- Market Cap: $75.0B
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 1-Year Return: 98.25%
- 52-Week High: $263.75
- 52-Week Low: $125.10
Analyst Consensus
14 Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell (26 analysts)
Bull Case
Analysts expect 87.6% EPS growth next year, making the 9.9x forward P/E look cheap for the growth on offer.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to the sector median of 12x without delivering the 87.6% earnings growth, the stock could see a sharp pullback from current levels.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates — any miss on the 87.6% EPS growth expectation could trigger a rapid multiple contraction.