VLO Stock Analysis — Valero Energy
Sector: Energy
AI Verdict
Valero trades at 11.0x next year's earnings while analysts expect nearly 30% EPS growth—cheap for the growth on offer, but the overbought RSI means you could be buying into a near-term pullback even if the moat holds.
Competitive Moat
Valero operates one of the largest and most complex independent oil refining networks in North America, giving it scale and logistics advantages in sourcing crude and distributing refined products. Its integration with pipelines and export terminals helps insulate margins from regional supply shocks and transportation bottlenecks.
Summary
Valero's 29.6% expected EPS growth and 11.0x forward P/E stand out as unusually cheap for a refiner after a 152.48% one-year run.
Where It Stands
Shares are up 152.48% in the past year, trade at just 11.0x next year's earnings versus the energy sector's 12x median, and an RSI of 73.7 signals overbought territory.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 73.7 — Overbought
- Trailing P/E: 14.2x
- Forward P/E: 11.0x
- PEG Ratio: 0.60
- Earnings Growth: +0.3%
- Revenue Growth: +0.1%
- Market Cap: $98.7B
- Dividend Yield: 0.02%
- 1-Year Return: 152.48%
- 52-Week High: $330.95
- 52-Week Low: $131.52
Analyst Consensus
14 Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell (26 analysts)
Bull Case
With forward EPS expected to jump 29.6% and a forward P/E of 11.0x, you're getting high growth at a discount to the sector median.
Bear Case
An RSI of 73.7 means the stock is overbought, so a pullback to a neutral RSI could mean a 10–15% price drop even if fundamentals don't change.
Catalyst to Watch
Quarterly earnings beats or misses will directly test whether that 29.6% EPS growth materializes and justifies the current valuation.