VST Stock Analysis — Vistra Corp.
Sector: Utilities
AI Verdict
Vistra trades at 16.1x next year's earnings with 65.5% growth expected, making it cheap for the growth on offer if its integrated model keeps delivering.
Competitive Moat
Vistra operates a large fleet of power generation assets, including nuclear, natural gas, and renewables, giving it scale and geographic diversity in electricity markets. Its integrated retail and generation model allows it to hedge commodity risk internally, which smaller utilities can't easily replicate.
Summary
A 65.5% jump in expected earnings is set to sharply lower Vistra's valuation multiple this year.
Where It Stands
Vistra is up 722% over five years but down 19.19% in the past year, with an RSI of 44.3 signaling cooling momentum and a forward P/E of 16.1x that is below the utility sector median of 18x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 44.3 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 26.6x
- Forward P/E: 16.1x
- PEG Ratio: 0.44
- Earnings Growth: +0.7%
- Revenue Growth: +0.2%
- Market Cap: $53.6B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: -19.19%
- 5-Year Return: 722%
- 52-Week High: $219.82
- 52-Week Low: $132.66
Analyst Consensus
22 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell (24 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts forecasting 65.5% EPS growth and a forward P/E of 16.1x, you're paying a below-average price for a surge in earnings.
Bear Case
If the forward P/E reverts to the sector median of 18x without earnings materializing, the stock could see a further pullback from its already negative 1-year return of -19.19%.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—if EPS growth tracks the 65.5% estimate, the valuation gap could close quickly.