VST Stock Analysis — Vistra Corp.
Sector: Utilities
AI Verdict
At 16.1x forward earnings with a 40.4% growth outlook and a scale-driven moat, this is cheap for the growth you're getting if operational execution holds up.
Competitive Moat
Vistra operates a large, diversified fleet of power generation assets across multiple fuel types, giving it flexibility to manage price swings and regulatory shifts. Its scale and vertical integration into retail electricity sales create cost advantages and customer stickiness that smaller utilities can't easily replicate.
Summary
VST's RSI of 25.7 signals the stock is deeply oversold despite 40.4% forward EPS growth expectations.
Where It Stands
Vistra trades at 16.1x next year's earnings—below the 18x utility sector median—while its RSI of 25.7 and -13.93% one-year return show it's been hammered despite a 715% five-year gain.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 25.7 — Oversold
- Trailing P/E: 22.6x
- Forward P/E: 16.1x
- PEG Ratio: 0.52
- Earnings Growth: +0.4%
- Revenue Growth: +0.2%
- Market Cap: $45.4B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: -13.93%
- 5-Year Return: 715%
- 52-Week High: $219.82
- 52-Week Low: $137.81
Analyst Consensus
22 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell (24 analysts)
Bull Case
With analysts expecting 40.4% EPS growth and a forward P/E of just 16.1x, you're paying a below-average price for rapid earnings acceleration.
Bear Case
If the P/E multiple reverts to the sector's 18x median, there's little room for further compression, but the -13.93% one-year return shows sentiment can stay negative even with growth.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings surprises or regulatory changes that could validate or undermine the 40.4% EPS growth forecast.