VST Stock Analysis — Vistra Corp.
Sector: Utilities
AI Verdict
Vistra trades at 14.5x next year’s earnings with massive growth expected, so you’re getting a bargain if its integrated utility moat holds up.
Competitive Moat
Vistra operates a large, diversified fleet of power generation assets across the U.S., including significant natural gas and renewables capacity, giving it scale and geographic reach that smaller rivals can't match. Its integrated retail and generation model creates stable cash flows and helps buffer against wholesale power price swings.
Summary
Vistra's 72.9% expected EPS growth next year is drawing attention after a massive 5-year run and a recent pullback.
Where It Stands
The stock is up 724% over five years but down 24.93% in the last year, with an RSI of 49.4 signaling neutral momentum and a forward P/E of 14.5x versus the utility sector median of 18x.
Key Metrics
- RSI: 49.4 — Neutral
- Trailing P/E: 25.0x
- Forward P/E: 14.5x
- PEG Ratio: 0.35
- Earnings Growth: +0.7%
- Revenue Growth: +0.2%
- Market Cap: $49.7B
- Dividend Yield: 0.01%
- 1-Year Return: -24.93%
- 5-Year Return: 724%
- 52-Week High: $219.82
- 52-Week Low: $132.66
Analyst Consensus
22 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell (24 analysts)
Bull Case
You’re paying 14.5x next year’s earnings for 72.9% expected EPS growth, which is cheap for the growth on offer if Vistra’s scale and integrated model keep delivering.
Bear Case
If the P/E reverts to the sector median of 18x but earnings growth stalls, the stock could see further downside after a 24.93% one-year drop.
Catalyst to Watch
Watch for quarterly earnings updates—confirmation of the 72.9% EPS growth outlook could justify the current forward multiple.